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① 网上聊天越来越流行 ② 有人反对它，有人赞同。 ③ 我的看法 With the development of IT, online chatting is becoming increasingly popular with many However, people’s opinions about it vary from person to Some think that it has more problems than First, it is a waste of time, energy and money as it doesn’t produce any useful information and Second, it is misleading to its users because cyberspace is actually an imaginary space where things are unreal or But the advocates of online chatting support it because it is another way of recreation which is both exciting and Besides, it helps them release their emotions and worries freely and To them, it is very useful and As far as I am concerned, whether online chatting is good or bad depends on the person who does So long as we can keep ourselves under good control, we can use it scientifically and properly without its bad 议论文范文 2 As students, we always have a lot of exams/tests every Tests are used nowadays to check/examine/measure how well /effectively students Exams are a very useful and important educational tool of However, exams have some side effects of their First, some exams can’t reflect the real progress students Second, too difficult or too many exams force students to cheat in Too many exams force students to study for the sake of exams only, to name just a In my opinion, advantages of exams far outweigh their Despite their side effects, exams can on the whole check and show how well students study scientifically and At least so far there has been not any method that take their place in Besides, exams seem to be fair to all students as they are objective and everyone is equal before test To conclude, exams may continue to exist in our education for a long time before they are replaced by some better measurement 记叙文范文 Eye-witness account of a traffic accident 假如你在某日某地某时目击一起车祸，就此写一份见证书。见证书如下： 车祸发生的时间和地点 你所见到的车祸的情况 你对车祸原因的分析 I witnessed a traffic accident on the street at about Here is my account of It happened at yesterday at the Xiao Zai intersection when I was on my way back to my A taxi ran into a cycling boy riding across Chang An Road near the When the taxi pulled up abruptly after the driver realized what had happened, the boy was already lying on the ground, bleeding and crying In 5 minutes, an ambulance came and took away the wounded There is no knowing how it came But I suppose it was because the boy ran the red light and the taxi driver took it for granted that there would be no pedestrian or cyclist would cross the road at that This accident warns us of the danger of ignoring traffic
我建议你多看点。。然后自己写毕竟是为了自己
什么主题都可以吗？这里给你几篇作为参考吧，希望可以对你有所帮助 城市生活与市郊生活 It is really hard to say which is better than the other, city life or rural life, because each has its merits and Living in a city, people have certain First, people enjoy various entertainments, both foreign and Second, there are more cultural activities in a Third, city dwellers gain access to better information service and educational However, problems The overcrowded population, traffic jam, housing problem, industrial pollution and other issues may result in depression, nervousness and laving in the country, people can enjoy living in pure They lead a simple and trouble free But rural life may not be that People usually lack cultural They are relatively ill informed Things go fairly slowly And people miss some golden opportunities of making a The chances of their children being admitted to colleges are Obviously, whatever life they lead, people can never feel perfectly satisfied, for conveniences and inconveniences always People wish that they could enjoy the pleasures of both With the rapid economic development, nowadays city dwellers can relax themselves in the country during vacation; and country people have chance to experience city lifestyle when they come to Life in the city is very different from life in the villages and on the People in large cities are much more careful to respect the privacy of the Sometimes this feeling seems to be one of indifference, but it is a convention of city life to curb one's curiosity about the personal affairs of Villagers and farmers are likely to show a great deal of interest in all their Opportunities for bright young people are greater in the cities and there has been a steady stream of hopeful jobseekers from the villages and farms to the large metropolitan As students, we always have a lot of exams/tests every Tests are used nowadays to check/examine/measure how well /effectively students Exams are a very useful and important educational tool of However, exams have some side effects of their First, some exams can’t reflect the real progress students Second, too difficult or too many exams force students to cheat in Too many exams force students to study for the sake of exams only, to name just a In my opinion, advantages of exams far outweigh their Despite their side effects, exams can on the whole check and show how well students study scientifically and At least so far there has been not any method that take their place in Besides, exams seem to be fair to all students as they are objective and everyone is equal before test To conclude, exams may continue to exist in our education for a long time before they are replaced by some better measurement How to Develop Urban Tourist Industry Tourist is developing very fast with the development of the economy in our People are popular with travelling at weekend or especially in their long holidy such 7-day National day,May Day or New years Day In order to meet the increasing need of people's tracelling, We should make great effort to develop the Urban tourist In my opinion, we ought to pay attention to the disadvantages and disadvantages while speeding up the tourist First, research is to be done to lear about the people's What kind of scene people prefer to go? Do the present places of interest meet the need of the most people?Are the service done well enough? Second, careful plans are to be made make ful use of the natural While developing the tourist,emphsis should be laid on how to protect the enviroment from being In all, we should't take no notice of the others while emphasising tourist We have to take them as a 人际交流的重要性 结论 Entering the 21st century, man is now in an age of information and In such an age, interpersonal communication plays an increasingly important role and all people have to communicate with Why is interpersonal communication so important? First, it helps people understand each other Second, it helps people get more information and Third, without interpersonal communication, our life would become a desert of emotion and Last but not the least, communication between people makes our life lively, interesting and In a word, humans, as social animals, have to communicate with each other, the importance of which can never be Why is interpersonal communication so important? Interpersonal communication is just like a bridge of understanding between For example, it helps students to learn more effectively if one can communicate more with his teachers and In a family, communication makes the family members understand each other better and get In the workplace, communication between the employer and the employed creates a friendly and helpful working How to Study Effectively As students, we have to study almost every However, how can we study effectively? Probably not everybody Have a look at the following graph and we may know better about This graph shows the relationship between the amount of study efficiency and the hours spent in studying in a From it, we can see that more hours of study do not necessarily result in better or higher study In the graph, the best amount of efficiency or the optimum of efficiency comes when one has studied for about 5 However, the efficiency begins to drop as he studies longer than By the time when one has studied for 10 hours in a day, his efficiency of study may become nothing or In conclusion, there is always a maximum of efficiency and time for study in a More time spent in study doesn’t always mean better This may tell us how we can study 如果你觉得满意的话，我希望你能给我一点悬赏分哦~~
（1）联系工作实际选题要结合我国行政管理实践（特别是自身工作实际），提倡选择应用性较强的课题，特别鼓励结合当前社会实践亟待解决的实际问题进行研究。建议立足于本地甚至是本单位的工作进行选题。选题时可以考虑选些与自己工作有关的论题，将理论与实践紧密结合起来，使自己的实践工作经验上升为理论，或者以自己通过大学学习所掌握到的理论去分析和解决一些引起实际工作问题。（2）选题适当所谓选题要适当，就是指如何掌握好论题的广度与深度。（3）选题要新意所谓要有新意，就是要从自己已经掌握的理论知识出发，在研究前人研究成果的基础上，善于发现新问题，敢于提出前人没有提出过的，或者虽已提出来，但尚未得到定论或者未完全解决的问题。只要自己的论文观点正确鲜明，材料真实充分，论证深刻有力，也可能填补我国理论界对某些方面研究的空白，或者对以前有关学说的不足进行补充、深化和修正。这样，也就使论文具有新意，具有独创性。选题技巧：技巧—：依据学术方向进行选题。论文写作的价值，关键在于能够解决特定行业的特定问题，特别是在学术方面的论文更是如此。因此，论文选择和提炼标题的技巧之一，就是依据学术价值进行选择提炼。技巧二：依据兴趣爱好进行选题。论文选择和提炼标题的技巧之二，就是从作者的爱好和兴趣出发，只有选题符合作者兴趣和爱好，作者平日所积累的资料才能得以发挥效用，语言应用等方面也才能熟能生巧。技巧三：依据掌握的文献资料进行选题。文献资料是支撑、充实论文的基础，同时更能体现论文所研究的方向和观点，因而，作者从现有文献资料出发，进行选题和提炼标题，即成为第三大技巧。技巧四：从小从专进行选题。所谓从小从专，即是指软文撰稿者在进行选则和提炼标题时，要从专业出发，从小处入手进行突破，切记全而不专，大而空洞。[3]4相关综述编辑任何一个课题的研究或开发都是有学科基础或技术基础的。综述部分主要阐述选题在相应学科领域中的发展进程和研究方向，特别是近年来的发展趋势和最新成果。通过与中外研究成果的比较和评论，说明自己的选题是符合当前的研究方向并有所进展，或采用了当前的最新技术并有所改进，目的是使读者进一步了解选题的意义。综述部分能反映出毕业设计学生多方面的能力。首先，反映中外文献的阅读能力。通过查阅文献资料，了解同行的研究水平，在工作中和论文中有效地运用文献，这不仅能避免简单的重复研究，而且也能使研究开发工作有一个高起点。其次，还能反映出综合分析的能力。从大量的文献中找到可以借鉴和参考的，这不仅要有一定的专业知识水平，还要有一定的综合能力。对同行研究成果是否能抓住要点，优缺点的评述是否符合实际，恰到好处，这和一个人的分析理解能力是有关的。值得注意的是，要做好一篇毕业论文，必须阅读一定量（2~3篇）的外文资料，这不仅反映自己的外文阅读能力，而且有助于论文的先进性。 1、论文摘要中应排除本学科领域已成为常识的内容；切忌把应在引言中出现的内容写入摘要；一般也不要对论文内容作诠释和评论(尤其是自我评价)。2、不得简单重复题名中已有的信息。3、结构严谨，表达简明，语义确切。摘要先写什么，后写什么，要按逻辑顺序来安排。句子之间要上下连贯，互相呼应。摘要慎用长句，句型应力求简单。每句话要表意明白，无空泛、笼统、含混之词，但摘要毕竟是一篇完整的短文，电报式的写法亦不足取。摘要不分段。4、用第三人称。建议采用“对……进行了研究”、“报告了……现状”、“进行了……调查”等记述方法标明一次文献的性质和文献主题，不必使用“本文”、“作者”等作为主语。5、要使用规范化的名词术语，不用非公知公用的符号和术语。新术语或尚无合适汉文术语的，可用原文或译出后加括号注明原文。6、除了实在无法变通以外，一般不用数学公式和化学结构式，不出现插图、表格。7、不用引文，除非该文献证实或否定了他人已出版的著作。8、缩略语、略称、代号，除了相邻专业的读者也能清楚理解的以外，在首次出现时必须加以说明。科技论文写作时应注意的其他事项，如采用法定计量单位、正确使用语言文字和标点符号等，也同样适用于摘要的编写。摘要编写中的主要问题有：要素不全，或缺目的，或缺方法；出现引文，无独立性与自明性；繁简失当。9、论文摘要之撰写通常在整篇论文将近完稿期间开始，以期能包括所有之内容。但亦可提早写作，然后视研究之进度作适当修改。有关论文摘要写作时应注意下列事项：10、整理你的材料使其能在最小的空间下提供最大的信息面。11、用简单而直接的句子。避免使用成语、俗语或不必要的技术性用语。12、请多位同僚阅读并就其简洁度与完整性提供意见。13、删除无意义的或不必要的字眼。但亦不要矫枉过正，将应有之字眼过份删除，如在英文中不应删除必要之冠词如a''an''the等。14、尽量少用缩写字。在英文的情况较多，量度单位则应使用标准化者。特殊缩写字使用时应另外加以定义。15、不要将在文章中未提过的数据放在摘要中。16、不要为扩充版面将不重要的叙述放入摘要中，即使摘要仅能以一两句话概括，就让维持这样吧，切勿画蛇添足。17、不要将文中之所有数据大量地列于摘要中，平均值与标准差或其它统计指标仅列其最重要的一项即可。18、不要置放图或表于摘要之中，尽量采用文字叙述。
我是一个高考的过来人，高考成绩129分，平时大考碰狗屎运也考过130+的分数。首先我想请阁下明白一个道理冰冻三尺非一日之寒，所以坚持很重要，英语是一门很看重积累的科目。虽然我高考已经好多年了，而且今年即将大学毕业，踏入社会。但英语一直没有丢，英语一直是我的排头兵！我对英语的自信还有，我觉得学好英语不难，重要的是你要有恒心，急躁冒进，三天打渔两天晒网都是不行的。在这里我就毛遂自荐一下我的学习方法吧：首先先你要端正心态，不要急躁，，你做你自己的事，这样才能静下心来学习。要成为英语高手就必须比别人走更多的路，做更多的事。你应该明白一个事实，英语是单词和语法的综合，所以单词和语法都要拿下。其次，对于单词，有如下几种方法，第一个，是加强记忆的频度，也就是说，早上记了几个，隔几个小时又看一次，总之一天之内，记忆的间隔不要太长，否则你辛苦积累的记忆会随着时间的延长而淡化，第二个，是可以根据自己的理解编顺口溜，比如good morning是狗摸你…（见笑了）…，第三个，最重要的是，记单词的时候，不要忘了阅读，一边记单词，一边看文章，这样可以把孤立的单词串联起来，记忆的效果会加倍，第四个。我建议你记单词要分门别类记忆，要形成一个意群，比如，重要性用magnitude magnificence，表示非常，大大地有exceedingly，tremendously，extremely……这样做在你写作时，是十分有好处的，写作时不要尽写一些低级词汇，你要写高级词汇，比如重要性写magnitude，许多写a multitude of或者handsome。再次，是语法。学习语法，首先要明白什么是主谓宾定状补，什么是系动词，什么是直接宾语，间接宾语，这些是学习语法的基础，语法是房子，主谓宾定状补等是沙石砖瓦。然后就要多做一些语法专项练习，并在此过程中不断总结，并时时回顾那些了解，那些依然不理解，需要注意的是，那些不理解的一定要花时间弄清楚，否则对自己的不负责将会导致英语语法一知半解的结局！这对于想成为英语高手的人来说，是十分不利的！（注：本人从开始时不知主谓宾，到熟练掌握语法，把语法书看了不下二十遍，书都翻烂了！莫笑本人愚笨……）此外，对于完形填空以及阅读理解，那就只能靠平时的练习了，在这个过程中，你要时时总结，纵深对比，千万不要陷入题海战术只做题，不总结的误区当中。在做题的过程中，你把各种体型都总结了一遍，积累了丰富的经验，而且你还提升了自己的阅读速度，一举两得，所以做题是很重要的！其实，完形填空无非就是单项选择加语境分析，也就是说，做完形填空你的语法要好，而且你要积累比较多的固定搭配，短语，特殊用法等，完形填空的语法还是很重要的！对于阅读，我个人感觉是，纯粹是个人经验积累多少的问题，只有保证一定的练习量，你才能用质的提高！最后，我建议你，平时读报，或者做题的时候，发现有好的句子好的词汇，你要抄下来，长期下来，你的作文会有提高的，需要说明的是，这个提高过程可能很缓慢，但是最后能收到很好的效果，以前25分的作文我都能保证在21-23这个级别，靠的就是对语法的熟练掌握和积累了许多较高级的词汇，句型，句子。我个人的理解是，在你的语法达到基本不会出错的程度上，作文便应该以词汇取胜，因为在这个层次上，大家的语法都差不多，没什么变化，唯一有变化的就是你的词汇！给你打个比方吧，很多想到“许多”就用many，但是你别忘了many a；handsome；massive，innumerable；很多人想到“专家”就写expert，但很少人会想到specialist，很多人在想到“擅长”这词，就写be good at，却不知还有更高级的表达法：be expert at或者excel in ……高手和庸才，就体现在这些细微的差别上！！
经济学人：加拿大的住宅市场Finance and Economics; 财经；Canada's housing market; 加拿大的住宅市场；Time for a bigger needle; 该出手时就出手；The latest attempt to prick a bubble;戳破泡沫的最新举措；经济学人：Canada's reputation for financial regulation is Its banksgot through the crisis According to Moody's, a ratings agency, Royal Bank of Canadasits alongside HSBC and JPMorgan Chase in the top tier of global And Canadianpolicymakers are old hands at pulling “macroprudential” levers of the sort now in vogue amongrich-world central 加拿大的金融监管一向广受赞誉。它的银行业在这场危机中做到了独善其身。根据评级机构穆迪的报告，加拿大皇家银行与汇丰银行以及摩根大通同列，跻身全球银行界的第一梯队。同时，加拿大的政策制定者也是运用宏观审慎政策的老手，这一政策如今也常被其他富国的央行使用。But questions still Some say that Canada's banks are flattered by a huge indemnity offeredby Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp (CMHC), a public institution that insures mortgages witha loan-to-value ratio of more than 80% CHMC's book grew to 567 billion Canadian Dollar(557 billion Dollar) in 2011, up from 345 billion Canadian Dollar four years And Canada'shousing market looks very frothy on some measures: The Economist's analysis of price-to-rentratios suggests that Canadian properties were about 75% above their long-run “fair value” in thefirst quarter of 2012 (see chart) Although less than 5% of CHMC's mortgages are in arrears, such exuberance is a The central bank recently labelled housing as “the most importantdomestic risk to financial stability in Canada”但是，仍有问题缠身。部分人士认为，加拿大的银行被加拿大抵押和住房公司（CMHC）提供的巨额补偿金美化了，CMHC是一家为贷款估值比率超过80%的抵押贷款提供保险的公共机构。在2011年，CHMC的抵押贷款额从四年前的3450亿增长到了5670亿加元（合5570亿美元）。并且，从一些指标来看，加拿大的房地产充斥着泡沫：《经济学人》以房价租金比所做的分析显示，在2012年第一季度，加拿大的物业价格高出它们的长期公允价值75%。纵然仅有低于5%的CHMC抵押贷款存在拖欠的情况，但这样的繁荣仍让人忧虑。最近，央行也冠以楼市 “危及加拿大金融稳定性的最大国内隐患”。Repeated efforts by policymakers to take the heat out of housing have not had a So on June 21st Jim Flaherty, the finance minister, had another go, his fourth in Some of the new measures were Buyers of homes worth more than 1m Dollarhave been able to get mortgage-default insurance from CMHC with a downpayment of only 5% In practice, it is hard to find buyers in this bracket who do not have lots of equity in their But after July 9th mortgages for homes of this value will not be eligible for CMHC 政策制定者们给楼市降温的不断尝试并无明显成效。于是，在6月21日，加拿大财长吉姆·费拉逖，在四年来第四次出台了一些新举措。新措施中的一些不过是表面功夫。价值过百万美元住宅的买主能得到由CMHC担保的债务违约保险以及首付仅付5%的优惠待遇。而事实上，很少有这类购房者在购房时不以大量自有资金支付价款的。不过，在6月9日之后，这类住宅将不再适用于CMHC的保险范围。Other measures have more The maximum amortisation period for a mortgage will now be25 years, down from That should hurt demand: last year about 40% of new mortgages werefor terms longer than Refinancing a home will be allowed only up to 80% of its value, downfrom 85% Homebuyers will have to demonstrate their housing costs are no more than 39% oftheir gross household On top of Mr Flaherty's measures, the Office of theSuperintendent of Financial Institutions, Canada's banking regulator, slapped a loan-to-value limitof 65% on borrowing against home 其他那些则更为有力。抵押贷款最长还贷期限如今将从30年降低至25年。这势必将减少需求：去年约有40%的新贷款的期限是超过25年的。允许的房屋再融资的上限从房屋价值的85%降至只有80%。购房者还须证明他们的住房支出不超过家庭总收入的39%。费拉逖的举措中，紧随其后的是，加拿大的银行监管部门，联邦金融机构监督办公室，将贷款和自有资金间的贷款估值比率的限制猛降至65%。Craig Alexander, the chief economist for TD Financial Group, estimates all this will be theequivalent of about a 1% rise in mortgage rates for most He believes that willproduce a slow unwinding of the housing If he is right, and Mr Flaherty's variousinterventions avoid the collateral damage that would be caused by an actual interest-rate rise, Canada's admirers will have another thing to swoon 多伦多道明银行金融集团首席经济学家，克雷格·亚历山大估计，所有这些措施对于购房者而言将等同于抵押贷款利率上升1%。他认为这将促使房产市场缓慢回归。如果他的观点正确，并且费拉逖的各种干预手段能够避免可能引发实际利率上升的附带伤害，那么如此一来，加拿大的崇拜者们又将有一个可以津津乐道的话题了。
现代金融学的发展 一、金融问题中的不确定性研究 在21世纪以前的经济学研究中，研究者大多关注的是企业中的投入产出效率问题，由于当时资本市场化程度低，很少有人专门研究与资本决策有关的问题，尽管如此，还是有些研究成果对以后金融学的发展起到了很大的推动作用，其中最大的贡献是资金时间价值概念的提出。 随着金融市场的发展，以及人们对不确定性概念的认识，进入30年代以后产生了大量对金融决策问题的研究成果，同时这些成果又积极推进了金融市场的活跃与发展。在本文以下部分简要概述与评价了这一时期的重要研究成果。 （一）不确定性研究在资产定价领域中的应用 证券组合理论与资本资产定价模型 在整个金融分析的框架中，不确定性概念的引入是具有重大作用的。最早Kenes(1936)和Hicks(1939)提出了风险补偿的概念，认为由于金融产品中的不确定性的存在，应该对不同金融产品在利率中附加一定的风险补偿。随后，Von Neumann(1947)应用预期效用的概念提出了解决在不确定性条件下的决策选择的方法，在此基础上Markowiz(1952)发展起了证券组合理论，他认为投资者选择证券组合时关注的只是未来现金流的均值与方差。他假设投资者的预期效用符合二次分布或者是多项式分布。Markowiz的主要研究结论是在不确定的前提下，最优的投资决策是分散化持有。Tobin(1958)认为投资者出于自身流动性偏好的不同选择收益与风险的均衡。这进一步完善了证券组合选择理论的框架。 在资产定价领域另一著名的理论模型就是资本定价模型(CAPM)，Sharp(1994)和Lintner(1995)用公式简明地表述了资产组合的价值与无风险利率以及资产的风险水平之间的关系。Black(1972)推出了即使在不存在无风险资产的情况下，Sharp和CAPM公式仍然成立，只是无风险利率被包括整个市场上所有资产的证券组合的预期收益率代替。与CAPM模型同时代出现的资产定价模型还有Ross(1977)的套利定价模型(APT)和Lucas(1978)典型代理资产定价模型。 以CAPM为代表的资产定价模型，为资产定价提供了一个简洁的计算方法，并且得到了一些在实证方面的研究的支持(Fama and Macbeth,1973)，但是对现实中的一些异常现象仍然缺少有效的解释能力，Brennan(1989)认为CAPM是建立在所有投资者对投资的预期与风险都具有共同的估计与判断，并且所有投资者的效用函数一致的假设基础之上，这一假设与现实不一致，这是导致CAPM对一些现实问题缺少解释力的根本原因。以后正是对这些假设的质疑，推动了信息不对称概念的提出与研究。 市场有效性假说 市场有效性假说认为，在一个完全竞争市场中，不存在不对称信息与市场摩擦，影响未来平均收益的只是投资风险的不同。在20世纪60年代有大量研究工作者对市场有效性假说进行了检验，Fama(1973)通过对美国证券市场的实证检验，认为有效市场假说是成立的，但是很多研究人员发现了在市场中，存在着许多市场有效性假说或者CAPM模型解释不了的异常现象。例如，Basu(1977)发现资产的平均收益除了与CAPM中的β系数有关外，还与资产的价格盈利比率（P/E比率）有关，在相同β系数下，价格盈利比率高的股票（成长型股票）的市场价格好于价格盈利比率低的股票（价值型股票）；Benz(1981)发现股票的市场价格还与上市公司的规模有关；Stattman(1980)发现股票的价格与账面价值的比率（P/B比率）也是影响股票价格的重要因素。Fama和French(1993)在以上研究的基础上提出了三因素模型，即在影响资产价格的β因素外，加入了P/E比率和P/B比率因素。 另外，许多研究人员从时间序角度研究也发现了一些市场有效假说与CAPM解释不了的异常现象，其中最为著名的就是Pozeff和Kinney(1976)发现的所谓“一月效应”；他们发现在纽约证券市场的指数在一月期间的存在明显低于其他月份的现象；还有就是Cross(1973)和French(1980)发现存在类似的“星期一效应”，以后许多研究人员在世界范围内验证了这两种现象的存在。 对这些异常现象的解释，有效市场假说显得无能为力，有人曾经试图将“一月效应”解释为到年末税收流出的影响，但是在英国、澳大利亚等税收年度不在12月份的国家，仍然存在“一月效应”就无法解释了。有些学者从心理学的角度解释这些异常现象，例如，Dreman(1982)将股票价格的P/E比率效应解释为，由投资者总是过高估计具有高成长性股票的成长性，导致市场中具有高P/E比率的股票的价格被高估了，这是导致股票收益率低的原因。 连续时间模型 在资产定价理论中的另一个重要假设是：证券市场总是在连续过程中，在这一假设前提下，Merton(1969,1971)将CAPM发展为瞬时资本资产定价模型(ICAPM)，同样在信息对称、无摩擦的市场中，资产价格的变化符合Ito过程，在这种条件下，资产的价格与投资者的效用偏好无关。在随后的研究中Merton(1973)和Black(1973)应用以上连续时间模型成功地得到了期权定价公式，这一公式后来被大量的实证研究所证实，并且被广泛在实践中应用。 （二）不确定性研究在公司财务管理中的应用 金融分析研究的另外一个重要领域是公司财务管理，主要研究公司在投资决策中的有关负债与权益比例选择、公司的红利政策等问题。最早这方面的研究成果由Modigliani和Miller(1958)作出，他们的研究显示，在完全市场中（没有市场摩擦与信息不对称存在）公司的价值与公司的负债比率无关（M-M定理）。类似的研究结论还有，公司的价值与公司的利润分配政策无关。显而易见，这些研究结论与现实中的事实不符。依据M-M定理的结论，公司在利润分配时，由于派发现金红利会有现金流出，公司将更愿意选择股份回购的政策，而不是红利政策，而在现实中，许多公司更愿意选择分红而不是股份回购，这一现象被Black(1976)称为“公司红利的困惑(Dividend Puzzle)”，对此Miller(1977)所能给出的解释是，M-M定理的结论之所以与现实不同在于税收与所谓的破产成本对财务结构的影响，是由于一定的负债可以使公司达到税收减免的作用，另外由于对高负债率公司存在着破产的风险，所以负债率对公司股票价值存在影响，Miller以及其他的学者对这些财务问题做出的解释总体来说都不很令人满意，直到后来引入不对称信息以后，似乎才对这些问题的解释取得了突破。 二、金融中的不对称信息问题的研究 正如前文所述，对现实中的一些现象很难单纯用不确定性（风险）来得到满意的解释，正是在对这些问题的研究引起了人们对金融问题中的不对称信息的关注，加上在20世纪60年代以博弈论为代表的信息经济研究方法的突破，使得许多学者在对金融问题中的不对称信息的研究中取得了很多成果，特别是用不对称信息可以完美地解释许多有关财务结构方面的问题。以下仍然分两部分概述这方面的成果，首先是在财务决策方面的成果，接下来是在资产定价方面的成果。 （一）不对称信息在公司财务管理中的应用 红利信号模型 关于公司红利决策的困惑引起了许多学者的关注，除了以上提到的公司更愿意支付红利而不愿意将利润用于股份回购的异常现象之外，Lintner(1957)还发现公司在进行红利决策时，由于受累进税制的影响，更愿意使各年的红利平滑些，所以公司每年的红利波动要远远小于股票价值波动，有关税收减免的理论解释较为理想，并且在以后被许多学者用实证方法证实了这一现象的存在（例如：Fama and Babiak,1968）。但是税收效应并没有很好解释公司为什么更愿意支付红利的困惑。 最早Miller(1961)注意到红利可能是向投资者揭示公司发展前景的信号，但是直到Bhattacharya(1979)才应用博弈论方法建立起了红利模型，Bhattaeharya成为第一个将博弈论引入金融分析的学者，Bhattacharya认为公司的管理者对公司投资项目的前景与其他普通投资者相比具有信息方面的优势，管理者通过公司的尽可能高的红利向普通投资者传递信息，如果公司红利水平高意味着公司投资项目的未来前景好，而对于无法支付高额红利的公司将不得不向银行贷款，从而担负过高的财务成本。以后许多学者在此基础上对模型又进行了一个改造(Miller and Rock,1985;John and Williams,1985)。但是仍有学者质疑认为，按照以上模型认为只有在公司需要为新项目向市场融资时，才有积极性支付高水平的红利，但事实上模型的红利支付水平并不受公司是否有新项目的影响。也就是说，上面的信号模型不能很好解释红利的平滑性。为此，Kumar(t988)发展出了一个粗糙信号(Coarse Signaling)模型，其结论认为公司在一定的利润范围内会支付同样水平的红利，直到公司的利润水平超出了这一范围，公司管理者才会调整红利支付水平。红利信号模型的另外一个问题是，公司为什么愿意支付红利，而不是股票回购。Ofer和Thakor(1987),Barclay和Smith(1988)用逆向选择原理解释了这一现象，他们认为公司更愿意在市场上自己股票被低估时回购股票，所以回购股票行为向市场传达了股票价值被低估的信号，所以会引起股票价值的上涨，从而使公司支付了额外的成本，而用红利分配利润不存在这一逆向选择问题。 资本结构 正如上文提到的，公司资本结构问题的研究在引入不对称信息以前一直没有得到令人满意的结论。应用博弈论描述公司资本结构的决策过程，大大推动了对公司基本结构决策研究的发展。 最早Ross(1977)建立了一个公司负债决策的博弈模型，其中公司通过负债率向资本市场传递公司未来经营前景的信息，由于高负债率可能导致公司破产的风险加大，而一旦公司破产将为公司的经营者带来损失，所以只有公司管理者对公司未来的现金收益乐观时才会在资本结构决策时选择贷款，提高负债率。而前景乐观的公司提高负债率的决策是前景悲观的公司所无法模仿的，所以对资本市场来说，高负债率是公司发展前景乐观的信号。随后在Myers(1984)的模型中，认为如果管理者在公司项目发展需要融资时，如果管理者认为目前市场上自己公司股票价值被市场高估了，会选择通过发行股票的直接融资方式，而如果管理者认为公司股票价值被低估了，就会选择贷款等间接融资方式，所以说公司增加发行股票向资本市场传递的是公司目前股票价值被高估的信号。Myers认为经营者在面对新项目需要投资时首先选择的是用自身盈利积累完成投资，其次是选择贷款等间接融资方式，最后才会选择发行股票的融资方式，这被称之为“融资顺序理论(Pecking order theory of finance)”。 在金融分析中应用博弈论的不对称信息理论取得较大成绩的研究就是所谓的代理问题的研究，Jensen和Mecking(1976)指出公司中存在两类代理问题，其一是债权人与股东的代理矛盾，其二是股东与公司管理者的代理矛盾。债权人与股东间的矛盾表现在股东总是扩大公司投资风险，因为项目成功了超额收益全部是股东的，而如果公司经营失败，破产的成本由债权人与股东共同负担。Diamond(1989)通过研究认为，在长期重复博弈条件下，股东的声誉可以在一定程度改善股东和债权人间的矛盾。股东与管理者间的矛盾是由于股东不能有效控制管理者的经营行为，因而管理者会最大化自己的利益，可能会损害股东利益。 在80年代末与90年代，出现了有大量关于代理问题的研究成果，Hart和Moore(1989,1994,1998)研究发现当企业家计划投资新项目而需要向外融资时，与投资者签订贷款合同是最优合同，得到这一结论的关键在于虽然企业家与外部投资者在项目未来进展的各个时期都可以观察到项目的收益情况，但是第三方（例如：法官）无法观察到项目的收益，此时贷款合同是最优融资合同，并且Hart认为由于贷款人在企业家不能偿还贷款时可以控制公司的资产，所以企业家有积极性偿还贷款。 公司所有权控制市场 公司所有权控制市场的概念最早是由Manne(1965)提出的，他认为为了有效的配置资源，公司所有权控制市场的存在是必要的，现代资本市场的有效运转离不开公司所有权控制市场的存在。在公司所有权控制市场中所有权的转移方式是多样化的，包括：收购、兼并、股票的发行以及委托代理关系的变化等手段。在传统的完全竞争、无摩擦的资本市场假设下，很少考虑公司所有权转移对公司价值的影响，而事实上每次兼并收购活动都会引起公司股票价值的大幅波动。直到进入80年代以后非对称信息概念的引入，使得人们认识到了公司所有权控制市场对资本市场影响的内在机制。 Crossman和Harl(19803研究了在公司收购过程中存在所谓的“免费搭车问题(Free Rider Problem)”，他们认为当收购方发现一个目标公司的运营效率低下，而决定收购目标公司时，面对外部的标购，原有的股东知道收购者通过收购后公司在新的经营者经营下，效率会提高，所以会自发抵制收购，等待收购价格的升高，直到收购价格升高到在新经营者的经营水平下的合理的价格时，原有股东才会出售手中股票。考虑到收购方在收购过程中搜集信息、组织收购是有成本的，所以采用标购行为实际上为收购方带来了损失。Shleifer和Vishny(1986)认为，如果收购方在标购目标公司以前就已经持有了目标公司的一定股票，可以解决上述“搭车问题”的困惑，收购方可以用自己手中股票的增值弥补收购带来的损失。然而Shleifer和Vishny的结论并没有在实证中得到证实，反而Desai和Kim(1988)的实证结果认为大多数的收购方在标购前并没有持有目标公司的股票。 在收购行为研究方面的另外一个困惑就是收购行为往往导致股票价格的大幅上涨，例如：Jennings和Mazzeo(1993)发现收购发生时的收购人对目标公司的首次出价，大多数高于收购前10天的股票价格的20%。Fishman(1988)将这种现象解释为是由于有潜在竞争者随时会加入收购，较高的出价是为了阻止竞争者加入。 新股发行(IPO) 在1963年在由美国证券交易委员会组织的一项研究中，首次发现在新股上市后的短期存在着明显的超额回报的现象，以后许多学者在许多国家发现了这一现象，例如：Ibbotson和Ritter(1995)统计得出美国纽约证券市场1960-1992年发行新股的首日的超额回报是3%。在许多年中IPO现象成为挑战市场有效性假说的又一个证据。 对IPO现象最早的解释是由Rock(1986)作出的，Rock认为IPO现象实质是个逆向选择问题，新股上市时市场上存在着两类投资者，一类是具有信息优势的投资者，一类是不具信息优势的投资者，信息投资者只是在新股定价低于其真实价值时才购买，而当定价高于其真实价值时只有不具信息优势的投资者才会参加购买，所以平均来说，不具信息优势的投资者购入了较大比例的被过高定价的股票，为了在市场中留住不具信息优势的投资者，公司在初次发行新股时常常有意低定价。类似Rock对IPO超额回报问题的解释，许多研究人员给出了这一问题的其他合理解释，例如：Allen和Faulhaber(1989)以及Grinblatt和Hwang(1989)将新股发行低定价解释为公司未来前景良好的信号；Hughes和Thakor(1992)认为公司新股发行低定价是为了规避诉讼风险；Ruud(1993)认为新股上市后的短期高回报是由于承销商的价格稳定活动造成的。 在IPO领域中的另外一个难以解释的现象就是新股上市后长期表现不好。Ritter(1991)研究发现，在1975-1984年间发行的新股在发行后3年间的回报比正常股票的回报至少低15%。以后Loughran(1993,1995)再次证实了这一现象的存在。Shiller(1990)用所谓“主持人效应”解释新股长期回报不好的现象，他认为新股上市的初期承销商出于对自身声誉的考虑会创造短期超额需求的假象，随后随着承销商从市场的退出，导致了新股长期回报不佳的现象。 （二）不对称信息在资产定价领域中的应用 Grossman和stiglitz(1980)最早将非合作不对称信息的概念引入资产定价领域的研究中，建立了所谓资产定价的理性预期均衡理论，他们认为资本市场中的每个参与者都从市场价格的变化中获得信息（所谓的学习过程），并且每个参与者的行为不会对市场价格构成影响。在80年代初期这一理论成果主要用于解释公司财务方面的问题，直到Kyle(1985)以及Kyle和Milgrom(1985)研究做市商制度下的价格形成机制的成果出现以后，不对称信息对资产价格的影响才越来越多地引起人们关注，以后在Kyle Milgrom框架的基础上出现了大量的研究成果。由于在这一框架下的价格决定机制不同于Modigliani Miller的市场均衡机制，是通过研究具体市场条件下的资产价格形成机制，所以常常将这部分研究成果称为市场微观结构理论。 Kyle研究了在做市商制度下证券市场的价格形成机制，在Kyle的模型中，市场由三类参与者构成：风险中性的做市商、噪音交易者和信息交易者，噪音交易者出于自己的流动性需求进入市场交易，信息交易者根据自己的信息交易，为了最大化自己的利益，信息交易者选择自己在市场上的交易数量。与Kyle不同之处在于，Milgrom建立的序贯交易模型(Sequential Trade Model)中交易者每次交易的数量都是固定的，即每次都只能买入或卖出一个单位的资产，做市商根据交易指令的类型来设定买卖价差，在均衡条件下，由于有竞争做市商的存在，买入报价是做市商收到卖出指令时关于资产价值的条件期望值，卖出报价是做市商收到买入交易指令时关于资产价值的条件期望值，因而交易者的交易指令将促使做市商调整其买卖报价，这种调整从本质上是一种贝叶斯学习过程。 Easley和O'Hara(1987)在Milgrom模型的基础上考察了交易规模对做市商价格行为的影响，其结论是做市商的定价策略会依赖指令的规模，数量比较大的指令往往以比较差的价格成交。以后Easley和O'Hara(1992)又考察了交易时间对价格行为的影响，发现交易时间会影响价格，并且交易间隔影响交易价差的大小。 现代金融理论方法经过近一个世纪的发展，取得了许多重大突破，特别是进入80年代以后，越来越多的金融难题得到解释。但是由于金融市场的复杂性，至今对许多问题的解释还很难令人满意，例如：对P/E比率和P/B比率对资产价值的影响的现象至今还没有合理的解释，对IPO以及基金中的折价现象的研究结果也没有较为统一的认识，另外市场中是否存在信息操纵问题也是一个争论的焦点。对这些问题的研究与解释，将进一步推动金融理论的发展。
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My View on Developing the Car IndustryWith the development of modern industry,more and more families are able to have their own But,seeing the problems like air pollution and the reduction of resources,some people appeal for the reduction of private Still,I think there is every reason for the even faster development of the car Thanks to the development of the car industry, we do not have to cram in the buses, but can enjoy free travel in own cars, we can go to more places in a leisure Transportation becomes comfortable and But there are those who worry that too many cars may cause more traffic problems, serious:air pollution and the exhaustion ofresources, While these problems may be true, they can be solved and some are being For example, we can invent cars that: can save fuel or use other types of energy so that cars can still ＇be used even though resources run To reduce pollution, people have manufactured many cars without We can relieve the traffic pressure by building more and more roads or-adopt computer-monitored automated For all the contemporary problems cars bring, no one can deny the convenience cars bring us and ignore the effort We make to solve these Therefore,the development of the car industry is necessary, and it should develop as quickly as
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How to improve your English in full detail (my experience) The Third EditionTo be good at English is not particularly easy but not terribly hard Before you start to learn sentences, or new words, the first and also the most important step is the "pronunciation" To pronounce perfectly you should buy a tape to assist you to learn and This is the fundamental step to learn English, ignore or pay no attention to this step; you will not learn proper English and you will find the later steps more and more If you are solid and accurate in pronunciation, you will find the later steps much easier and you will stand firmly on the right After mastering the pronunciation perfectly, it is the time to accumulate new words and useful Of course start from the simplest words like “hello, hi, you, me, he, him, his, her”, and expressions like “how are you, how old are you, how do you do”, It is essential to write the words on a piece of paper so that you remember them Actually everyone had done these at his/her primary *************Now let me tell you how I learnt English in C *******************Speaking:In China, you won't have enough chances to speak E What I did was in the morning I got up early and read aloud the texts in the The initial aim was to achieve the same speed as the tape, and then being able to read aloud the texts with the same style as the English announcer in the By doing this, it helps you to consolidate your pronunciation and Listening:Nowadays it is much easier to learn English in China because you can watch some TV channels in E The more channels in English the better because you can choose your preferred programmes and it helps you to learn English with interests of your own, hence ideal for listening and expression/words Writing:It is also very useful to write On writing diaries, it is not useful if you just write it without the care of grammar and When you finish you should always read your diaries again to check for errors and refine your sentences ( remove repetitive words, use better expressions, and sort out the structure of the sentences)Reading:It is also very important to read story books in English, starting from thin ones with not many new Read as many thin books as you possibly Little by Little you will want to read thicker books, and your reading ability will get even Putting four elements together:I have to emphasise that when you do all these reading, listening, writing and speaking; you should join them together as a whole, apply the new words you learn from watching TV, reading books to your writing and The enhancement of learning comes from getting hold of the possible opportunities to speak English (in China or abroad):In China, you should try to go to local English corner to practise your oral E If you are abroad then you should make a lot of English or international friends so you always have the opportunity to speak EOn Spoken English, attitude is very You need to be very keen and you must not be Never be afraid to make Always think that a talk in English with some one will help you You can think in this way: since my parents have paid so much to support me to study abroad, the money is partly spent on the international environment for learning English; therefore I ought to try my best to take every opportunity to practise my E My English has risen to a higher level in the last 2 years, because I talk in English most of the Having some international friends is particularly useful Summing up the activities:I have also been watching TV The real improvement lies in staying with international friends long enough and watching a lot of TV such as news, football, dramas, documentaries Writing diaries also helps me to remember good words, good expressions and practise sentence *****Now, I have finished talking about how to learn and improve General EIt is the time to switch to "Your Major in English" *******************************Knowing general English on its own is not going to be sufficient for most Skills are as important as mastering another General English helps people to communicate with each other in their Technical English helps you to take on challenges to change the world for the highest, to earn money for your living for the Some people who have a degree in English go abroad to learn something different but heavily based on the language such as Media study, Journalist, History, Education or even a bit more technical like Finance, Business Administration or EIt is extremely useful to know more because there are so many words in English and they appear differently to each For people whose second language is English, will find it difficult to guess the meaning of a new For sure, it is not possible to know Pick a major first and put all your effort on that major, in the end you will have a rich vocabulary of that Difficulties on learning Technical English:To master technical English in your area of study, there are two difficulties to 1, the language, because it is not your first language, you need to remember the terms, knowing how to pronounce it and spell 2, surely you need to understand the terms in a technical No matter what field, it is going to be the same; the two difficulties above must be Here I take Physics as an example (note that whatever field you are looking into is going to be similar):The term "momentum" is basically the product of the mass of the object and the velocity it Obviously, you need to understand mass and velocity as If you understand mass and velocity, then you get the explanation of the term "momentum" in physics, then you are most likely to understand the word and use it properly in the technical world of P From this example, you can see how to understand a technical word in a technical fashion: you need to understand the very fundamental knowledge of a field to be able to understand more complex terminologies or Before learning technical English in your field of study, I have a good recommendation to save your time:To understand technical knowledge in your first language (Chinese), then you might not have the second What it left to overcome is just the first difficulty (the language), hence the effort required is I can give you an example of my own:When I was learning chemistry at A-level, I had already learnt inorganic chemistry at the equivalent level in China, so I had no difficulty whatsoever in learning inorganic chemistry in the UK in EBut I had not learnt organic chemistry in China, and I was struggling significantly in learning organic chemistry in the UK due to dual ************OK, I have finished talking about how to improve your technical ENow i will talk about IT (Information Technology), why is this important? Because nowadays it is the information age, you need to know computers, Internet, media and communications Knowing how to use Internet to search information will help your E ************I don't want to waffle too much on Computers are more and more important nowadays, everyone wants a computer and most people have their own But most people are not using the right Operating System for learning E Now I would like to introduce you to Debian Linux Operating system or a much nicer operating system called Ubuntu L If you still don't have a computer you can buy a China's home grown computer based on a Loongson CPU It saves your electricity and your time to deal with Linux will help you to improve your English skills because you need to read some documents and follow the instructions to set up software programs, it also requires you to search the Internet (Google for example) to find the answers to your problems ( installations of software programs)you can read about the commands of Linux in the terminal by putting in "man