Chinese central government's recent policies -- a proposed increase of Renminbi rate flexibility and removal of export tax rebate for some products as of July 15 -- could exert substantial impact on the country's steel Analysts forecast these policies are unfavorable to the steel industry in the short run, but they are likely to help accelerate the industry's restructuring in the long --- RMB appreciation to exert limited impact on iron ore import priceThe market generally expects Chinese currency RMB yuan to appreciate slowly and gradually in the future after China's central bank vowed last weekend to make the exchange rate regime more Most institutions reported forecasts of three percent to five percent RMB appreciation over the next one Imported iron ore prices will become relatively lower on the RMB appreciation, but only According to estimation by Southwest Securities, China's steel production costs per tonne would drop 8 yuan if the RMB appreciates three percent, and drop 9 yuan on a five-percent The average impact on production costs for the entire steel sector will only be marginal, said analyst Liu Zhe with Southwest SAnother favorite result of RMB appreciation is that China will pay less RMB in purchasing overseas mines and deposits, which has been a popular endeavor of Chinese steelmakers to try to lower iron ore However, a lot of experts doubt how much the RMB appreciation will benefit Chinese overseas Mei Xinyu, an associate researcher fellow with the Research Institute under the Ministry of Commerce, said the political power is now playing a major role in purchasing overseas mineral Thus, analysts and experts generally hold the RMB appreciation will not improve the steel sector's profitability through a marginal production costs --- RMB appreciation, export tax rebate removal to affect Chinese steel exportsObviously, the RMB appreciation will hold back China's steel China's steel export in the first five months totaled 96 million tonnes, up 7 percent from a year If the level continues, the whole year would see 1 million tonnes steel sold abroad, much more than the 6 million tonnes in However, the reality might become much worse if the RMB is appreciated, and the removal of export tax rebate for some steel products starts from July 15, which was approved by the State Council on TYang Xianghong, the chief economist with Hunan Valin Steel, said the impact of the two measures together would be considerable to the steel Some analysts said China's steel exports would still be bleak even if there were not these two Analyst Zhang Ping with U expected a great possibility for a cutdown steel export in June given the overseas demand is Although May saw a good export volume of 94 million tonnes, those were mainly orders signed two months ago, Zhang --- The two policies expected to accelerate restructuring of China's steel sectorAccording to experts, the series of policies, including increase of RMB rate flexibility, removal of export tax rebate as well as the preceding circular on emission reduction of steel industry, which are all targeted at curbing projects of high energy consumption, high pollution and those consuming mineral resources, will further slash the marginal profitability of China's steelmakers in a short run, yet they will also be helpful to the restructuring of the industry from a long-term Li Yizhong, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, once said China's steel sector should mainly rely on domestic demand instead of "Large-amount exports of common steel products only turn China into a big processing plant for the world, with marginal profits and high pollution," said analyst Zhang PMass production and exports of low-value-added steel products have not only dragged down the entire competitiveness of China's steel industry, but also have pushed up the global iron ore prices, market participants 开头结尾自己加一点。这个是用出口和汇率相结合分析的文章。你可以看下-/web/packages/fxregime/vignettes/CNYpdf 这个很全。